Tortoise and Hare Race Between Lai and Hou
By Chen Sung-shan
My Formosa, January 6, 2023
Recently, leading presidential contenders have begun to emerge. According to polls, Vice President William Lai and incumbent Mayor Hou Yu-ih of New Taipei are the most popular candidates for their political parties, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Kuomintang (KMT), respectively. Mr. Lai is presently running for the DPP chairmanship with hopes to secure the party’s presidential nomination. Mr. Hou’s assertion that "We are definitely not a pawn of any great power" has also been interpreted by observers to test public opinion for his future campaign. Evidently, the competition in the 2024 presidential election will see a contest between two strong candidates. Mr. Lai and Mr. Hou are bound to manage to surmount the political obstacles to win the presidential primaries in their respective parties under a “must-win” political atmosphere.
In fact, Mr. Lai’s announcement of his candidacy for the DPP chairmanship is the start of his candidacy for the presidency. Even though there are other potential candidates or some noise in the party, basically, under the political "coattail effect" and the party legislators’ political needs for re-election, there is little suspense about Mr. Lai’s becoming the DPP’s presidential nominee. What is really important is how Mr. Lai would reshape the political image and core values of the DPP after he assumes the chairmanship of the party, pull back from the fiasco of the recent local elections, and regain the support of the large number of lost young and swing voters for the DPP again. It is quite challenging for Mr. Lai to make vigorous efforts to turn the tide when he runs for president. Especially in the political reality that the current double-headed carriage system of President Tsai Ing-wen and Premier Su Tseng-chang may continue to be in power, how much leverage and space does Mr. Lai have for drastic political reforms?
Similarly, the problem of Mr. Hou’s ambition to run for the presidency lies not in the political criticism of him as a "cut-and-run mayor", but in the intrinsic culture and habits of the political structure within the KMT and the political challenges of other possible candidates, and not least, under the momentum of the KMT local election victory presided over by Chairman Eric Chu, lingering doubts about Mr. Hou's “inner political leaning” or his true political color by the KMT supporters. Only has Mr. Hou overcome all the obstacles and technical impediments on the way, will he stand the chance to represent KMT to run for president.
Therefore, the competition between Mr. Lai and Mr. Hou will be the political contest of "the tortoise and the hare" where Mr. Lai starts first and Mr. Hou catches up slowly but surely. Who can reach the finish line first? It will be indeed a neck-and-neck political competition! Mr. Lai's advantage lies in the DPP’s "full-power governance" without the bane of checks and balances, but what lies ahead is the apparent continuation of the "Tsai-Su system" of full power governance, which is destined to transform into the situation of a “troika” political leadership, and Mr. Lai won’t be able to break away from this political structure and has to respect President Tsai and Premier Su as per the pecking order. At the same time, it is also the source of extremely knotty problems of internal party reform and concomitant impediments which will test Mr. Lai’s ability to grapple. The political balance is quite a nuanced subject and difficult to master, and the political key to winning or losing the election is likely to be at this political node.
Mr. Hou’s biggest problem is his lukewarm political relationship with the KMT. This is an important factor that won him nearly 460,000 votes more than his rival Lin Chia-lung in the re-election of the mayor of New Taipei. However, this factor also poses the biggest political obstacle to his standing out and being nominated as the KMT presidential candidate. This is why Mr. Hou is the most popular in the polls notwithstanding, Chairman Chu is still unwilling to give up the opportunity to run for presidency; it is speculated that Terry Gou, founder of Foxconn, is still restless and ready for action; and former supporters of 2020 presidential nominee Han Kuo-yu still extend to him loyal support.
Therefore, even though Mr. Hou is the strongest and most popular presidential candidate in the KMT and is almost the only strong candidate who is well-matched with Mr. Lai, he is doomed to face political struggle, becoming a popular presidential candidate in a dilemma. He can only wait passively for the opportunity to act, and it is difficult for him to take the initiative to make public his personal intention to stand for the presidential election.
Therefore, Mr. Lai, who took the lead to start the race, must take the plunge. Running for the chairmanship of the DPP is an unavoidable political choice. The question is how to show his political courage and determination to assume political responsibility, and deal with the new "black money politics" in the DPP with a heavy hand after being elected chairman of the party so that the DPP can regain the trust of the Taiwanese people. Then will he have the opportunity to lead the DPP to victory in the general election. The key lies in whether President Tsai is willing to "let go" her power and let Mr. Lai clean up the party and government; and whether Premier Su or the new premier can bear to delegate power to let Mr. Lai lead the direction of state affairs and the personnel layout of some cabinet members. In my opinion, this is a rather harsh political tug-of-war and wrestling match, it all depends on Mr. Lai’s political leadership and vision.
Mayor Hou, a "slow bird flying slowly," must demonstrate superb political integration and coordination capability if he would like to run for the presidency. He may take advantage of the hiatus of the Chinese New Year holiday to actively pay courtesy calls to the party seniors, leadership elites and even possible presidential candidates in accordance with political etiquette and gesture. Mr. Hou must be integrated into the KMT’s political culture and habits and demonstrate the "Hou style" political leadership in order to break down the political barriers within the party and overcome any unfavorable factors, turn resistance into assistance, and gradually shape a political atmosphere and create opportunities for his candidacy in the presidential election.
In short, Mr. Hou and Mr. Lai are competitors in a tortoise-and-the-hare race about to unfold and have their respective political problems and challenges to face. The people of Taiwan have already focused their attention on whose starting moves will attract people’s eyeballs and who will dominate political discussion after the Lunar New Year, and whoever is likely to get the pre-emptive opportunities of the race. The political wheel of the presidential election, which concerns Taiwan's destiny and future development, is about to start. Who will be the final possible winner in the tortoise and hare race? The race is about to kick off.